GEOINT and Space Situational Awareness (SSA): Part 1 – The Next Frontier?

For several years, there has been chatter about applying GEOINT to Space Situational Awareness (SSA). Concepts like “key terrain,” “patterns of life,” and “camouflage detection” have been loosely thrown around as GEOINT tasks for analyzing the "space in space." Is this an expansion of the GEOINT discipline, or is the GEOINT community just “chasing the wind?”

This is the first of two articles on GEOINT and SSA. In this piece, the goal is to discuss applying GEOINT methods to SSA, primarily in the outer space termed Low Earth Orbit (LEO). It serves as an initial exploration into whether GEOINT can be applied to SSA. The second article will explore the cultural aspects of GEOINT related to SSA and introduce the concept of Space Domain awareness (SDA)

LEO Focus

Our focus here is on LEO or Low Earth Orbit. LEO spans altitudes approximately 100 km (about 62.14 mi) to 2000 km (about 1242.74 mi) above Earth and contains most of our crucial satellites for communication, navigation, and military purposes. LEO isn't just a busy belt in outer space; it’s a potential battlefield. Since 2019, the number of satellites in LEO has doubled, mainly due to megaconstellations. These constellations deliver continuous Internet and communication access to denied environments. Perhaps most significantly, they illustrate an emerging Space Economy, where critical infrastructure, including data centers, will need surveillance and protection.

Satellites orbit in various directions and distances from Earth depending on their design and purpose. Objects can orbit in the same direction as Earth's rotation, in the opposite direction, or along another track. Due to factors like drift and drag, satellite orbits are periodically adjusted to return the satellite to a path that aligns with its intended track. Each orbital distance presents its own advantages and challenges.

NASA estimates there are currently about 1 million trackable and undetectable objects in LEO. The high speeds of these objects mean even tiny debris can cause severe damage. Debris from anti-satellite tests has made things worse, creating clouds of fragments that clutter this region of outer space. The risk of Kessler Syndrome, where collisions create a chain reaction making parts of LEO “bad neighborhoods,” is a growing concern. To tackle this, a Space Traffic Management (STM) framework is being set up to prevent collisions and manage debris, aiming to improve safety.

GEOINT and SSA

The heart of both GEOINT and SSA lies in finding, tracking, and analyzing objects in a “space.” SSA locates objects using a celestial sphere reference system similar to how we record things on Earth. This system uses celestial equivalents to latitude and longitude where the center of the Earth is fixed at (0, 0, 0); the X-axis aligns with the zero meridian, which is the first point of Aries. The Y-axis is perpendicular to the X-axis in the equatorial plane, and the Z-axis is the mean axis of rotation for the Earth. Like spatial metadata, a two-line element set (TLE) records the orbital elements of an Earth-orbiting object for a point in time. Using this data, the position and velocity of an orbiting object in the past or future can be estimated.

Wild Idea?

Applying GEOINT to SSA might not be a wild idea but rather a logical extension of geographic principles. Despite the differences in gravitational strength, atmospheric effects, and environmental conditions, the laws of physics are consistent. Objects in LEO, like those on Earth, follow inertia, have kinetic and potential energy, and adhere to thermodynamic principles.

Geography’s laws suggest how spatial analysis might be adapted to objects in LEO. The First Law of Geography, "everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things," underpins spatial analysis. GIScience techniques like Empirical Bayesian Kriging 3D (EBK3D) might predict the varying density of undetectable objects in a debris cloud. Geography’s Second Law recognizes spatial heterogeneity—the observation that conditions change from place to place. Here, a technique like Multiscale Flow-focused Geographically Weighted Regression (MFGWR) might have applications in analyzing the spatial structure of orbital patterns to inform STM.

The Next Frontier?

This discussion only proposes ideas and scratches the surface of whether GEOINT technical methods can be applied to SSA. This and other areas require exploration, including public-private partnerships, commercial collaboration, international cooperation, interagency dynamics, the mix of sovereign and allied capabilities, parallels with maritime mapping, legal aspects, espionage concerns, and the governance of space. Some of these topics will be explored in my second piece. A central concern is the future colonization outer space and the possible demarcation of frontiers.

Is GEOINT "chasing the wind?" I don't think so; I see SSA as GEOINT’s next frontier. The next step involves a closer examination of applying GEOINT’s GIScience foundation and tradecraft to SSA’s specific needs. As we pursue this opportunity, it’s crucial that GEOINT stays open to evolving ideas and organizational strategies aimed at sustaining our outer space assets. Let’s begin a dialogue on SSA and GEOINT, pushing the boundaries of current GEOINT thought and practice.

Click here to register for DGI 2025 and hear more exclusive insights from 125+ experienced speakers.